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Is a Mega Evolution booster box worth it?

As of 2026-10-19, an average Mega Evolution booster box holds $130.93 of cards at TCGplayer market prices, 43% of the box's $303.55 market price. Opening one loses $172.62 on average, so buying the singles you want costs less than chasing them.

Expected value from published pull rates and our nightly TCGplayer prices. Updated 2026-10-19.

Box price
$303.55
Cards inside, on average
$130.93
Value vs price
43%
Per pack
$3.64
vs $8.43 of box price

The pulls that carry the box

The most valuable Mega Evolution cards at market price. Most of a box's value sits in a handful of them.

  1. Mega Lucario ex - 188/132
    Mega Lucario ex - 188/132
    $223.63
  2. Mega Gardevoir ex - 178/132
    Mega Gardevoir ex - 178/132
    $168.24
  3. Mega Lucario ex - 179/132
    Mega Lucario ex - 179/132
    $167.27
  4. Mega Gardevoir ex - 187/132
    Mega Gardevoir ex - 187/132
    $160.84
  5. Mega Venusaur ex - 177/132
    Mega Venusaur ex - 177/132
    $132.23
  6. Mega Latias ex - 181/132
    Mega Latias ex - 181/132
    $70.60
  7. Mega Kangaskhan ex - 182/132
    Mega Kangaskhan ex - 182/132
    $51.82
  8. Lillie's Determination - 184/132
    Lillie's Determination - 184/132
    $49.28
  9. Mega Absol ex - 180/132
    Mega Absol ex - 180/132
    $48.57
  10. Acerola's Mischief - 183/132
    Acerola's Mischief - 183/132
    $26.93

How the number is worked out

How we got 43%

Box price $303.55: TCGplayer market price of the sealed booster box on 2026-10-19.

  1. Bulk slots $34.46: 36 packs × 7 common/uncommon slots × $0.14 average market price of the set's commons and uncommons.
  2. Reverse holo slots $18.55: 36 packs × 2 reverse-holo slots × $0.26 average reverse-holo price.
  3. Rare slot $77.92: for each rarity tier, 36 packs × pulls per pack × the tier's average card price.
    TierPulls / packAvg card priceCards in tierEV / box
    Special Illustration Rare1 in 101.0$75.0510$26.75
    Illustration Rare1 in 9.2$5.6322$22.07
    Ultra Rare1 in 12.2$4.4522$13.19
    Double Rare (ex)1 in 4.8$0.7410$5.55
    Mega Hyper Rare (gold Mega)1 in 1250.0$192.242$5.54
    Rare / Rare Holo1 in 1.4$0.1912$4.83

EV $130.93 ÷ box price $303.55 = 43% ($3.64 per pack).

Pull rates: published community pull-rate data (config repo-2026-10-19).

Expected value is a long-run average. Most single boxes land below it, a few land far above, and selling fees come out of what you would actually net. Full methodology.

Questions people ask

Is a Mega Evolution booster box worth it?
As of 2026-10-19, an average Mega Evolution booster box holds $130.93 of cards at TCGplayer market prices, 43% of the box's $303.55 market price. Opening one loses $172.62 on average, so buying the singles you want costs less than chasing them.
What is the expected value of a Mega Evolution booster box?
$130.93 per box as of 2026-10-19, or $3.64 per pack, from published pull rates and TCGplayer market prices for every card in the set. Recomputed nightly.
What are the most valuable pulls in Mega Evolution?
Mega Lucario ex - 188/132 ($223.63), Mega Gardevoir ex - 178/132 ($168.24), Mega Lucario ex - 179/132 ($167.27), Mega Gardevoir ex - 187/132 ($160.84), Mega Venusaur ex - 177/132 ($132.23), at TCGplayer market prices on 2026-10-19.
How does Mega Evolution compare with other booster boxes?
It ranks 11 of 15 boxes we track by value inside against box price on 2026-10-19.
Box value

Know when a Mega Evolution box is worth opening

The Lab Letter, every Sunday, tracks the value inside every box we price. Free. See last Sunday's Letter.

Other booster boxes

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