What is the expected value of a Mega Evolution booster box?

$130.02 per box as of 2026-11-08, or $3.61 per pack, from published pull rates and TCGplayer market prices for every card in the set. Recomputed nightly.

What are the most valuable pulls in Mega Evolution?

Mega Lucario ex - 188/132 ($202.07), Mega Lucario ex - 179/132 ($160.16), Mega Gardevoir ex - 178/132 ($157.59), Mega Gardevoir ex - 187/132 ($152.07), Mega Venusaur ex - 177/132 ($104.29), at TCGplayer market prices on 2026-11-08.

How does Mega Evolution compare with other booster boxes?

It ranks 10 of 15 boxes we track by value inside against box price on 2026-11-08.

Is a Mega Evolution booster box worth it?

As of 2026-11-08, an average Mega Evolution booster box holds $130.02 of cards at TCGplayer market prices, 43% of the box's $299.77 market price. Opening one loses $169.75 on average, so buying the singles you want costs less than chasing them.

Expected value from published pull rates and our nightly TCGplayer prices. Updated 2026-11-08.

Box price

$299.77

Cards inside, on average

$130.02

Value vs price

43%

Per pack

$3.61

vs $8.33 of box price

Buy the box on TCGplayerMega Evolution booster box price history Every Mega Evolution card price

The pulls that carry the box

The most valuable Mega Evolution cards at market price. Most of a box's value sits in a handful of them.

Opening it? Protect the pulls

Code THELAB takes 10% off at BCW

Sleeve + toploader combo: For the hits, straight out of the pack.BCW −10%
Magnetic card holder (35 pt): For the one chase card you keep.BCW −10%
Card storage boxes: For the commons, uncommons and energy.BCW −10%

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How the number is worked out

How we got 43%

Box price $299.77: TCGplayer market price of the sealed booster box on 2026-11-08.

Bulk slots $37.89: 36 packs × 7 common/uncommon slots × $0.15 average market price of the set's commons and uncommons.
Reverse holo slots $18.22: 36 packs × 2 reverse-holo slots × $0.25 average reverse-holo price.

Rare slot $73.91: for each rarity tier, 36 packs × pulls per pack × the tier's average card price.

Tier	Pulls / pack	Avg card price	Cards in tier	EV / box
Special Illustration Rare	1 in 101.0	$67.72	10	$24.13
Illustration Rare	1 in 9.2	$5.11	22	$20.03
Ultra Rare	1 in 12.2	$4.55	22	$13.49
Double Rare (ex)	1 in 4.8	$0.80	10	$5.99
Rare / Rare Holo	1 in 1.4	$0.20	12	$5.17
Mega Hyper Rare (gold Mega)	1 in 1250.0	$177.07	2	$5.10

EV $130.02 ÷ box price $299.77 = 43% ($3.61 per pack).

Pull rates: published community pull-rate data (config repo-2026-10-19).

Expected value is a long-run average. Most single boxes land below it, a few land far above, and selling fees come out of what you would actually net. Full methodology.

Questions people ask

Is a Mega Evolution booster box worth it?: As of 2026-11-08, an average Mega Evolution booster box holds $130.02 of cards at TCGplayer market prices, 43% of the box's $299.77 market price. Opening one loses $169.75 on average, so buying the singles you want costs less than chasing them.
What is the expected value of a Mega Evolution booster box?: $130.02 per box as of 2026-11-08, or $3.61 per pack, from published pull rates and TCGplayer market prices for every card in the set. Recomputed nightly.
What are the most valuable pulls in Mega Evolution?: Mega Lucario ex - 188/132 ($202.07), Mega Lucario ex - 179/132 ($160.16), Mega Gardevoir ex - 178/132 ($157.59), Mega Gardevoir ex - 187/132 ($152.07), Mega Venusaur ex - 177/132 ($104.29), at TCGplayer market prices on 2026-11-08.
How does Mega Evolution compare with other booster boxes?: It ranks 10 of 15 boxes we track by value inside against box price on 2026-11-08.

Mega Evolution sealed prices

TCGplayer market prices as of 2026-11-08.

Elite Trainer Boxes and bundles

Same packs, fewer of them. Price per pack decides which is the better buy.

Is the Mega Evolution Elite Trainer Box (Mega Gardevoir) worth it?$12.56 per pack
Is the Mega Evolution Elite Trainer Box (Mega Lucario) worth it?$12.76 per pack
Is the Mega Evolution Pokémon Center Elite Trainer Box (Mega Gardevoir) worth it?$16.23 per pack
Is the Mega Evolution Pokémon Center Elite Trainer Box (Mega Lucario) worth it?$17.66 per pack
Is the Mega Evolution Booster Bundle worth it?$10.71 per pack

Box value

Know when a Mega Evolution box is worth opening

The Lab Letter, every Sunday, tracks the value inside every box we price. Free. See last Sunday's Letter.

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