Is a Mega Evolution booster box worth it?
As of 2026-10-19, an average Mega Evolution booster box holds $130.93 of cards at TCGplayer market prices, 43% of the box's $303.55 market price. Opening one loses $172.62 on average, so buying the singles you want costs less than chasing them.
Expected value from published pull rates and our nightly TCGplayer prices. Updated 2026-10-19.
The pulls that carry the box
The most valuable Mega Evolution cards at market price. Most of a box's value sits in a handful of them.
Mega Lucario ex - 188/132$223.63
Mega Gardevoir ex - 178/132$168.24
Mega Lucario ex - 179/132$167.27
Mega Gardevoir ex - 187/132$160.84
Mega Venusaur ex - 177/132$132.23
Mega Latias ex - 181/132$70.60
Mega Kangaskhan ex - 182/132$51.82
Lillie's Determination - 184/132$49.28
Mega Absol ex - 180/132$48.57
Acerola's Mischief - 183/132$26.93
How the number is worked out
How we got 43%
Box price $303.55: TCGplayer market price of the sealed booster box on 2026-10-19.
- Bulk slots $34.46: 36 packs × 7 common/uncommon slots × $0.14 average market price of the set's commons and uncommons.
- Reverse holo slots $18.55: 36 packs × 2 reverse-holo slots × $0.26 average reverse-holo price.
- Rare slot $77.92: for each rarity tier, 36 packs × pulls per pack × the tier's average card price.
Tier Pulls / pack Avg card price Cards in tier EV / box Special Illustration Rare 1 in 101.0 $75.05 10 $26.75 Illustration Rare 1 in 9.2 $5.63 22 $22.07 Ultra Rare 1 in 12.2 $4.45 22 $13.19 Double Rare (ex) 1 in 4.8 $0.74 10 $5.55 Mega Hyper Rare (gold Mega) 1 in 1250.0 $192.24 2 $5.54 Rare / Rare Holo 1 in 1.4 $0.19 12 $4.83
EV $130.93 ÷ box price $303.55 = 43% ($3.64 per pack).
Pull rates: published community pull-rate data (config repo-2026-10-19).
Expected value is a long-run average. Most single boxes land below it, a few land far above, and selling fees come out of what you would actually net. Full methodology.
Questions people ask
- Is a Mega Evolution booster box worth it?
- As of 2026-10-19, an average Mega Evolution booster box holds $130.93 of cards at TCGplayer market prices, 43% of the box's $303.55 market price. Opening one loses $172.62 on average, so buying the singles you want costs less than chasing them.
- What is the expected value of a Mega Evolution booster box?
- $130.93 per box as of 2026-10-19, or $3.64 per pack, from published pull rates and TCGplayer market prices for every card in the set. Recomputed nightly.
- What are the most valuable pulls in Mega Evolution?
- Mega Lucario ex - 188/132 ($223.63), Mega Gardevoir ex - 178/132 ($168.24), Mega Lucario ex - 179/132 ($167.27), Mega Gardevoir ex - 187/132 ($160.84), Mega Venusaur ex - 177/132 ($132.23), at TCGplayer market prices on 2026-10-19.
- How does Mega Evolution compare with other booster boxes?
- It ranks 11 of 15 boxes we track by value inside against box price on 2026-10-19.
Know when a Mega Evolution box is worth opening
The Lab Letter, every Sunday, tracks the value inside every box we price. Free. See last Sunday's Letter.
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