Pokémon Booster Box EV Tracker
Expected value is what the cards inside a box are worth at today's singles prices, computed nightly from published pull rates and our live price data. A ratio near or above 100% means the box is priced below its contents. That is rare, and usually short-lived. Most boxes sit well under 100%: that gap is the price of the gamble. Rip or hold, this is the number to know first.
Prices and EV as of 2026-10-20, recomputed nightly. Read how EV is calculated, or expand any box below for its own numbers.
- 1SV09: Journey Together
36 packs · EV $140 vs box $193 · $3.89/pack
Is a Journey Together box worth it?
top pullsHow we got 73%
Box price $193.22: TCGplayer market price of the sealed booster box on 2026-10-20.
- Bulk slots $40.02: 36 packs × 7 common/uncommon slots × $0.16 average market price of the set's commons and uncommons.
- Reverse holo slots $22.14: 36 packs × 2 reverse-holo slots × $0.31 average reverse-holo price.
- Rare slot $77.93: for each rarity tier, 36 packs × pulls per pack × the tier's average card price.
Tier Pulls / pack Avg card price Cards in tier EV / box Special Illustration Rare 1 in 33.3 $37.77 6 $40.79 Illustration Rare 1 in 12.5 $6.33 11 $18.24 Hyper Rare (gold) 1 in 50.0 $8.54 3 $6.15 Ultra Rare 1 in 15.4 $1.87 11 $4.39 Double Rare (ex) 1 in 7.1 $0.85 16 $4.29 Rare / Rare Holo 1 in 1.8 $0.21 16 $4.07
EV $140.09 ÷ box price $193.22 = 73% ($3.89 per pack).
Pull rates: published community pull-rate data (config v1).
Buy box73%EV / price - 2SV05: Temporal Forces
36 packs · EV $192 vs box $311 · $5.33/pack
Is a Temporal Forces box worth it?
top pullsHow we got 62%
Box price $311.32: TCGplayer market price of the sealed booster box on 2026-10-20.
- Bulk slots $46.50: 36 packs × 7 common/uncommon slots × $0.18 average market price of the set's commons and uncommons.
- Reverse holo slots $22.37: 36 packs × 2 reverse-holo slots × $0.31 average reverse-holo price.
- Rare slot $122.84: for each rarity tier, 36 packs × pulls per pack × the tier's average card price.
Tier Pulls / pack Avg card price Cards in tier EV / box Illustration Rare 1 in 12.1 $23.98 22 $71.21 Special Illustration Rare 1 in 62.9 $36.11 10 $20.67 Ultra Rare 1 in 12.8 $5.75 25 $16.17 Double Rare (ex) 1 in 5.6 $1.17 15 $7.54 Rare / Rare Holo 1 in 2.0 $0.25 14 $4.49 Hyper Rare (gold) 1 in 138.9 $10.67 6 $2.76
EV $191.71 ÷ box price $311.32 = 62% ($5.33 per pack).
Pull rates: published community pull-rate data (config v1).
Buy box62%EV / price - 3SV07: Stellar Crown
36 packs · EV $170 vs box $300 · $4.73/pack
Is a Stellar Crown box worth it?
top pullsHow we got 57%
Box price $300.45: TCGplayer market price of the sealed booster box on 2026-10-20.
- Bulk slots $44.83: 36 packs × 7 common/uncommon slots × $0.18 average market price of the set's commons and uncommons.
- Reverse holo slots $22.10: 36 packs × 2 reverse-holo slots × $0.31 average reverse-holo price.
- Rare slot $103.17: for each rarity tier, 36 packs × pulls per pack × the tier's average card price.
Tier Pulls / pack Avg card price Cards in tier EV / box Illustration Rare 1 in 12.5 $20.43 13 $58.85 Special Illustration Rare 1 in 50.0 $31.73 6 $22.85 Double Rare (ex) 1 in 4.8 $1.17 14 $8.87 Ultra Rare 1 in 14.3 $2.41 14 $6.06 Rare / Rare Holo 1 in 2.0 $0.20 15 $3.56 Hyper Rare (gold) 1 in 100.0 $8.27 3 $2.98
EV $170.10 ÷ box price $300.45 = 57% ($4.73 per pack).
Pull rates: published community pull-rate data (config v1).
Buy box57%EV / price - 4ME05: Pitch Black
36 packs · EV $102 vs box $182 · $2.84/pack
Is a Pitch Black box worth it?
top pullsHow we got 56%
Box price $181.97: TCGplayer market price of the sealed booster box on 2026-10-20.
- Bulk slots $27.08: 36 packs × 7 common/uncommon slots × $0.11 average market price of the set's commons and uncommons.
- Reverse holo slots $17.64: 36 packs × 2 reverse-holo slots × $0.25 average reverse-holo price.
- Rare slot $57.46: for each rarity tier, 36 packs × pulls per pack × the tier's average card price.
Tier Pulls / pack Avg card price Cards in tier EV / box Special Illustration Rare 1 in 80.0 $52.09 6 $23.44 Ultra Rare 1 in 12.0 $3.74 18 $11.17 Illustration Rare 1 in 9.1 $2.44 11 $9.65 Rare / Rare Holo 1 in 1.4 $0.17 11 $4.44 Double Rare (ex) 1 in 4.8 $0.58 10 $4.37 Mega Hyper Rare (gold Mega) 1 in 1111.1 $134.99 1 $4.37
EV $102.18 ÷ box price $181.97 = 56% ($2.84 per pack).
Pull rates: published community pull-rate data (config repo-2026-10-19).
Buy box56%EV / price - 5ME03: Perfect Order
36 packs · EV $96 vs box $175 · $2.67/pack
Is a Perfect Order box worth it?
top pullsHow we got 55%
Box price $175.01: TCGplayer market price of the sealed booster box on 2026-10-20.
- Bulk slots $24.53: 36 packs × 7 common/uncommon slots × $0.10 average market price of the set's commons and uncommons.
- Reverse holo slots $16.31: 36 packs × 2 reverse-holo slots × $0.23 average reverse-holo price.
- Rare slot $55.13: for each rarity tier, 36 packs × pulls per pack × the tier's average card price.
Tier Pulls / pack Avg card price Cards in tier EV / box Special Illustration Rare 1 in 81.3 $41.95 6 $18.58 Illustration Rare 1 in 8.9 $3.22 11 $12.97 Ultra Rare 1 in 11.7 $3.23 18 $9.93 Rare / Rare Holo 1 in 1.4 $0.23 11 $5.95 Double Rare (ex) 1 in 4.8 $0.76 9 $5.72 Mega Hyper Rare (gold Mega) 1 in 1666.7 $91.94 1 $1.99
EV $95.98 ÷ box price $175.01 = 55% ($2.67 per pack).
Pull rates: published community pull-rate data (config repo-2026-10-19).
Buy box55%EV / price - 6SV04: Paradox Rift
36 packs · EV $144 vs box $285 · $3.99/pack
Is a Paradox Rift box worth it?
top pullsHow we got 50%
Box price $285.12: TCGplayer market price of the sealed booster box on 2026-10-20.
- Bulk slots $35.28: 36 packs × 7 common/uncommon slots × $0.14 average market price of the set's commons and uncommons.
- Reverse holo slots $16.47: 36 packs × 2 reverse-holo slots × $0.23 average reverse-holo price.
- Rare slot $91.97: for each rarity tier, 36 packs × pulls per pack × the tier's average card price.
Tier Pulls / pack Avg card price Cards in tier EV / box Illustration Rare 1 in 11.9 $19.90 34 $60.32 Special Illustration Rare 1 in 51.8 $18.18 15 $12.63 Ultra Rare 1 in 13.3 $3.11 28 $8.43 Double Rare (ex) 1 in 6.6 $0.90 20 $4.97 Rare / Rare Holo 1 in 1.9 $0.18 27 $3.45 Hyper Rare (gold) 1 in 81.3 $4.90 7 $2.17
EV $143.73 ÷ box price $285.12 = 50% ($3.99 per pack).
Pull rates: published community pull-rate data (config v1).
Buy box50%EV / price - 7ME04: Chaos Rising
36 packs · EV $91 vs box $181 · $2.53/pack
Is a Chaos Rising box worth it?
top pullsHow we got 50%
Box price $181.29: TCGplayer market price of the sealed booster box on 2026-10-20.
- Bulk slots $26.66: 36 packs × 7 common/uncommon slots × $0.11 average market price of the set's commons and uncommons.
- Reverse holo slots $16.50: 36 packs × 2 reverse-holo slots × $0.23 average reverse-holo price.
- Rare slot $47.83: for each rarity tier, 36 packs × pulls per pack × the tier's average card price.
Tier Pulls / pack Avg card price Cards in tier EV / box Special Illustration Rare 1 in 82.6 $40.81 6 $17.78 Illustration Rare 1 in 9.4 $2.83 11 $10.85 Ultra Rare 1 in 12.1 $2.27 18 $6.77 Mega Hyper Rare (gold Mega) 1 in 1000.0 $115.89 1 $4.17 Double Rare (ex) 1 in 4.9 $0.57 10 $4.14 Rare / Rare Holo 1 in 1.4 $0.16 12 $4.11
EV $90.99 ÷ box price $181.29 = 50% ($2.53 per pack).
Pull rates: published community pull-rate data (config repo-2026-10-19).
Buy box50%EV / price - 8SV06: Twilight Masquerade
36 packs · EV $158 vs box $336 · $4.38/pack
Is a Twilight Masquerade box worth it?
top pullsHow we got 47%
Box price $336.43: TCGplayer market price of the sealed booster box on 2026-10-20.
- Bulk slots $39.10: 36 packs × 7 common/uncommon slots × $0.16 average market price of the set's commons and uncommons.
- Reverse holo slots $21.84: 36 packs × 2 reverse-holo slots × $0.30 average reverse-holo price.
- Rare slot $96.73: for each rarity tier, 36 packs × pulls per pack × the tier's average card price.
Tier Pulls / pack Avg card price Cards in tier EV / box Illustration Rare 1 in 12.9 $14.13 21 $39.32 Special Illustration Rare 1 in 85.5 $63.30 11 $26.66 Ultra Rare 1 in 15.1 $3.74 21 $8.90 ACE SPEC Rare 1 in 19.8 $4.48 6 $8.15 Rare / Rare Holo 1 in 1.3 $0.23 16 $6.45 Double Rare (ex) 1 in 5.9 $0.91 14 $5.52 Hyper Rare (gold) 1 in 147.1 $7.04 6 $1.72
EV $157.67 ÷ box price $336.43 = 47% ($4.38 per pack).
Pull rates: published community pull-rate data (config repo-2026-10-19).
Buy box47%EV / price - 9SV01: Scarlet & Violet Base Set
36 packs · EV $137 vs box $294 · $3.80/pack
Is a Scarlet & Violet Base Set box worth it?
top pullsHow we got 47%
Box price $293.69: TCGplayer market price of the sealed booster box on 2026-10-20.
- Bulk slots $35.46: 36 packs × 7 common/uncommon slots × $0.14 average market price of the set's commons and uncommons.
- Reverse holo slots $18.53: 36 packs × 2 reverse-holo slots × $0.26 average reverse-holo price.
- Rare slot $82.79: for each rarity tier, 36 packs × pulls per pack × the tier's average card price.
Tier Pulls / pack Avg card price Cards in tier EV / box Illustration Rare 1 in 13.0 $16.65 24 $46.08 Special Illustration Rare 1 in 32.2 $16.47 10 $18.44 Ultra Rare 1 in 15.4 $3.07 20 $7.19 Double Rare (ex) 1 in 7.1 $0.78 12 $3.93 Rare / Rare Holo 1 in 1.8 $0.19 21 $3.71 Hyper Rare (gold) 1 in 52.1 $4.98 6 $3.44
EV $136.78 ÷ box price $293.69 = 47% ($3.80 per pack).
Pull rates: published community pull-rate data (config v1).
Buy box47%EV / price - 10SV02: Paldea Evolved
36 packs · EV $196 vs box $451 · $5.44/pack
Is a Paldea Evolved box worth it?
top pullsHow we got 43%
Box price $451.20: TCGplayer market price of the sealed booster box on 2026-10-20.
- Bulk slots $35.68: 36 packs × 7 common/uncommon slots × $0.14 average market price of the set's commons and uncommons.
- Reverse holo slots $16.89: 36 packs × 2 reverse-holo slots × $0.23 average reverse-holo price.
- Rare slot $143.11: for each rarity tier, 36 packs × pulls per pack × the tier's average card price.
Tier Pulls / pack Avg card price Cards in tier EV / box Illustration Rare 1 in 13.1 $34.19 36 $94.29 Special Illustration Rare 1 in 34.8 $22.75 15 $23.51 Ultra Rare 1 in 13.3 $4.07 26 $11.00 Double Rare (ex) 1 in 7.0 $1.05 17 $5.41 Hyper Rare (gold) 1 in 41.8 $5.87 9 $5.05 Rare / Rare Holo 1 in 1.9 $0.21 25 $3.84
EV $195.68 ÷ box price $451.20 = 43% ($5.44 per pack).
Pull rates: published community pull-rate data (config v1).
Buy box43%EV / price - 11ME01: Mega Evolution
36 packs · EV $129 vs box $304 · $3.59/pack
Is a Mega Evolution box worth it?
top pullsHow we got 43%
Box price $303.55: TCGplayer market price of the sealed booster box on 2026-10-20.
- Bulk slots $33.15: 36 packs × 7 common/uncommon slots × $0.13 average market price of the set's commons and uncommons.
- Reverse holo slots $18.01: 36 packs × 2 reverse-holo slots × $0.25 average reverse-holo price.
- Rare slot $77.98: for each rarity tier, 36 packs × pulls per pack × the tier's average card price.
Tier Pulls / pack Avg card price Cards in tier EV / box Special Illustration Rare 1 in 101.0 $74.90 10 $26.69 Illustration Rare 1 in 9.2 $5.67 22 $22.23 Ultra Rare 1 in 12.2 $4.42 22 $13.08 Mega Hyper Rare (gold Mega) 1 in 1250.0 $191.93 2 $5.53 Double Rare (ex) 1 in 4.8 $0.73 10 $5.53 Rare / Rare Holo 1 in 1.4 $0.19 12 $4.93
EV $129.14 ÷ box price $303.55 = 43% ($3.59 per pack).
Pull rates: published community pull-rate data (config repo-2026-10-19).
Buy box43%EV / price - 12SV03: Obsidian Flames
36 packs · EV $156 vs box $371 · $4.32/pack
Is a Obsidian Flames box worth it?
top pullsHow we got 42%
Box price $371.00: TCGplayer market price of the sealed booster box on 2026-10-20.
- Bulk slots $41.78: 36 packs × 7 common/uncommon slots × $0.17 average market price of the set's commons and uncommons.
- Reverse holo slots $20.43: 36 packs × 2 reverse-holo slots × $0.28 average reverse-holo price.
- Rare slot $93.41: for each rarity tier, 36 packs × pulls per pack × the tier's average card price.
Tier Pulls / pack Avg card price Cards in tier EV / box Illustration Rare 1 in 11.9 $13.26 12 $40.09 Special Illustration Rare 1 in 27.8 $20.37 6 $26.40 Hyper Rare (gold) 1 in 50.0 $12.47 3 $8.98 Ultra Rare 1 in 16.7 $3.43 12 $7.42 Double Rare (ex) 1 in 7.0 $1.40 21 $7.14 Rare / Rare Holo 1 in 1.9 $0.17 10 $3.38
EV $155.61 ÷ box price $371.00 = 42% ($4.32 per pack).
Pull rates: published community pull-rate data (config v1).
Buy box42%EV / price - 13SV08: Surging Sparks
36 packs · EV $118 vs box $295 · $3.27/pack
Is a Surging Sparks box worth it?
top pullsHow we got 40%
Box price $295.27: TCGplayer market price of the sealed booster box on 2026-10-20.
- Bulk slots $31.23: 36 packs × 7 common/uncommon slots × $0.12 average market price of the set's commons and uncommons.
- Reverse holo slots $17.45: 36 packs × 2 reverse-holo slots × $0.24 average reverse-holo price.
- Rare slot $68.91: for each rarity tier, 36 packs × pulls per pack × the tier's average card price.
Tier Pulls / pack Avg card price Cards in tier EV / box Special Illustration Rare 1 in 87.0 $64.49 11 $26.70 Illustration Rare 1 in 13.0 $7.84 23 $21.73 Double Rare (ex) 1 in 6.0 $1.24 18 $7.46 Ultra Rare 1 in 14.9 $2.58 29 $6.22 Hyper Rare (gold) 1 in 188.7 $17.99 6 $3.43 Rare / Rare Holo 1 in 1.9 $0.17 16 $3.38
EV $117.59 ÷ box price $295.27 = 40% ($3.27 per pack).
Pull rates: published community pull-rate data (config v1).
Buy box40%EV / price - 14ME02: Phantasmal Flames
36 packs · EV $150 vs box $392 · $4.17/pack
Is a Phantasmal Flames box worth it?
top pullsHow we got 38%
Box price $391.74: TCGplayer market price of the sealed booster box on 2026-10-20.
- Bulk slots $29.35: 36 packs × 7 common/uncommon slots × $0.12 average market price of the set's commons and uncommons.
- Reverse holo slots $15.78: 36 packs × 2 reverse-holo slots × $0.22 average reverse-holo price.
- Rare slot $104.93: for each rarity tier, 36 packs × pulls per pack × the tier's average card price.
Tier Pulls / pack Avg card price Cards in tier EV / box Special Illustration Rare 1 in 80.0 $134.94 5 $60.72 Illustration Rare 1 in 9.1 $4.48 13 $17.68 Double Rare (ex) 1 in 4.8 $1.17 10 $8.77 Ultra Rare 1 in 12.4 $2.61 17 $7.57 Mega Hyper Rare (gold Mega) 1 in 1250.0 $200.75 1 $5.78 Rare / Rare Holo 1 in 1.4 $0.17 10 $4.41
EV $150.06 ÷ box price $391.74 = 38% ($4.17 per pack).
Pull rates: published community pull-rate data (config repo-2026-10-19).
Buy box38%EV / price - 15SV10: Destined Rivals
36 packs · EV $148 vs box $395 · $4.12/pack
Is a Destined Rivals box worth it?
top pullsHow we got 38%
Box price $394.61: TCGplayer market price of the sealed booster box on 2026-10-20.
- Bulk slots $43.58: 36 packs × 7 common/uncommon slots × $0.17 average market price of the set's commons and uncommons.
- Reverse holo slots $22.25: 36 packs × 2 reverse-holo slots × $0.31 average reverse-holo price.
- Rare slot $82.45: for each rarity tier, 36 packs × pulls per pack × the tier's average card price.
Tier Pulls / pack Avg card price Cards in tier EV / box Special Illustration Rare 1 in 94.3 $85.86 11 $32.76 Illustration Rare 1 in 12.1 $8.86 23 $26.44 Ultra Rare 1 in 15.6 $3.31 22 $7.61 Rare / Rare Holo 1 in 1.4 $0.23 18 $6.02 Double Rare (ex) 1 in 5.0 $0.70 17 $5.02 Hyper Rare (gold) 1 in 149.3 $19.03 6 $4.59
EV $148.28 ÷ box price $394.61 = 38% ($4.12 per pack).
Pull rates: published community pull-rate data (config repo-2026-10-19).
Buy box38%EV / price
Know when a box crosses 100% EV
The Lab Letter, every Sunday, tracks every box on this page. When EV overtakes box price, you'll read it there first. Free. See last Sunday's Letter.
Methodology: how we calculate EV
Expected value (EV) is the average market value of the cards you would pull from one booster box, priced at today's TCGplayer singles prices. Every box on this page shows a “How we got this” link with its own numbers; this is the recipe behind all of them.
The formula
EV per box = Bulk EV + Reverse Holo EV + Rare Slot EV
- Bulk EV = packs per box × common/uncommon slots per pack × the average market price of the set's commons and uncommons.
- Reverse Holo EV = packs per box × reverse-holo slots per pack × the average market price of the set's reverse holos.
- Rare Slot EV = packs per box × Σ over rarity tiers (pulls per pack for that tier × the average market price of the cards in that tier). Tiers are Rare/Rare Holo, Double Rare, Illustration Rare, Ultra Rare, Special Illustration Rare and Hyper Rare (Mega Hyper Rare in Mega Evolution sets).
EV ratio = EV per box ÷ the box's own TCGplayer market price. Above 100% the contents are worth more than the box; most boxes sit well below it.
Inputs
- Card prices: TCGplayer market price for every card in the set from our nightly snapshot (2026-10-20). Raw, near-mint, English printings only.
- Box price: the TCGplayer market price of the set's 36-pack booster box product on the same date. If the box has no price that day the set is skipped rather than estimated.
- Pull rates: published community pull-rate studies per set (linked on each box), expressed as pulls per pack for each rarity tier, plus fixed slot counts for commons/uncommons and reverse holos.
- Exclusions: code cards, sealed products, blisters, bundles and other non-pack items are removed from the card pool before averaging so a $1,900 case never counts as a “pull”.
What EV does not tell you
- It is a long-run average. One box can beat it, and more often falls short; the spread comes from the rare slot, where a handful of chase cards carry most of the value.
- It uses market prices, not what you would net. Selling fees, shipping, grading and the time it takes to move bulk all come out of the realized number.
- Prices move nightly, so the ratio you see today is today's. We recompute every box every night and stamp the date at the top of the page.
Buy links go to TCGplayer and may earn us a commission at no cost to you. That never changes the numbers on this page.