Lab TCG

Pokémon Booster Box EV Tracker

Expected value is what the cards inside a box are worth at today's singles prices, computed nightly from published pull rates and our live price data. A ratio near or above 100% means the box is priced below its contents. That is rare, and usually short-lived. Most boxes sit well under 100%: that gap is the price of the gamble. Rip or hold, this is the number to know first.

Prices and EV as of 2026-09-09, recomputed nightly. Read how EV is calculated, or expand any box below for its own numbers.

  1. 1
    SV05: Temporal Forces

    36 packs · EV $203 vs box $315 · $5.65/pack

    Gastly - 177/162Morty's Conviction - 211/162Raging Bolt ex - 208/162Sawsbuck - 166/162top pulls
    How we got 65%

    Box price $315.06: TCGplayer market price of the sealed booster box on 2026-09-09.

    1. Bulk slots $47.70: 36 packs × 7 common/uncommon slots × $0.19 average market price of the set's commons and uncommons.
    2. Reverse holo slots $21.61: 36 packs × 2 reverse-holo slots × $0.30 average reverse-holo price.
    3. Rare slot $134.17: for each rarity tier, 36 packs × pulls per pack × the tier's average card price.
      TierPulls / packAvg card priceCards in tierEV / box
      Illustration Rare1 in 12.1$26.4222$78.48
      Special Illustration Rare1 in 62.9$39.5210$22.62
      Ultra Rare1 in 12.8$6.3925$17.96
      Double Rare (ex)1 in 5.6$1.2215$7.90
      Rare / Rare Holo1 in 2.0$0.2414$4.38
      Hyper Rare (gold)1 in 138.9$10.906$2.82

    EV $203.48 ÷ box price $315.06 = 65% ($5.65 per pack).

    Pull rates: published community pull-rate data (config v1).

    65%
    EV / price
    Buy box
  2. 2
    SV09: Journey Together

    36 packs · EV $152 vs box $246 · $4.23/pack

    Lillie's Clefairy ex - 184/159Salamence ex - 187/159N's Zoroark ex - 185/159Iono's Bellibolt ex - 183/159top pulls
    How we got 62%

    Box price $245.79: TCGplayer market price of the sealed booster box on 2026-09-09.

    1. Bulk slots $33.87: 36 packs × 7 common/uncommon slots × $0.13 average market price of the set's commons and uncommons.
    2. Reverse holo slots $20.00: 36 packs × 2 reverse-holo slots × $0.28 average reverse-holo price.
    3. Rare slot $98.42: for each rarity tier, 36 packs × pulls per pack × the tier's average card price.
      TierPulls / packAvg card priceCards in tierEV / box
      Special Illustration Rare1 in 33.3$49.136$53.06
      Illustration Rare1 in 12.5$8.1911$23.58
      Hyper Rare (gold)1 in 50.0$10.563$7.60
      Ultra Rare1 in 15.4$2.3511$5.51
      Double Rare (ex)1 in 7.1$0.9816$4.94
      Rare / Rare Holo1 in 1.8$0.1916$3.74

    EV $152.30 ÷ box price $245.79 = 62% ($4.23 per pack).

    Pull rates: published community pull-rate data (config v1).

    62%
    EV / price
    Buy box
  3. 3
    SV07: Stellar Crown

    36 packs · EV $179 vs box $309 · $4.96/pack

    SquirtleBulbasaurDachsbun ex - 169/142Terapagos ex - 170/142top pulls
    How we got 58%

    Box price $308.61: TCGplayer market price of the sealed booster box on 2026-09-09.

    1. Bulk slots $41.19: 36 packs × 7 common/uncommon slots × $0.16 average market price of the set's commons and uncommons.
    2. Reverse holo slots $21.80: 36 packs × 2 reverse-holo slots × $0.30 average reverse-holo price.
    3. Rare slot $115.66: for each rarity tier, 36 packs × pulls per pack × the tier's average card price.
      TierPulls / packAvg card priceCards in tierEV / box
      Illustration Rare1 in 12.5$24.4513$70.41
      Special Illustration Rare1 in 50.0$31.366$22.58
      Double Rare (ex)1 in 4.8$1.2914$9.76
      Ultra Rare1 in 14.3$2.5614$6.45
      Rare / Rare Holo1 in 2.0$0.1815$3.30
      Hyper Rare (gold)1 in 100.0$8.793$3.16

    EV $178.65 ÷ box price $308.61 = 58% ($4.96 per pack).

    Pull rates: published community pull-rate data (config v1).

    58%
    EV / price
    Buy box
  4. 4
    SV04: Paradox Rift

    36 packs · EV $149 vs box $275 · $4.15/pack

    Groudon - 199/182Morpeko - 206/182Altaria ex - 253/182Plusle - 193/182top pulls
    How we got 54%

    Box price $275.15: TCGplayer market price of the sealed booster box on 2026-09-09.

    1. Bulk slots $32.37: 36 packs × 7 common/uncommon slots × $0.13 average market price of the set's commons and uncommons.
    2. Reverse holo slots $15.43: 36 packs × 2 reverse-holo slots × $0.21 average reverse-holo price.
    3. Rare slot $101.64: for each rarity tier, 36 packs × pulls per pack × the tier's average card price.
      TierPulls / packAvg card priceCards in tierEV / box
      Illustration Rare1 in 11.9$22.1134$67.01
      Special Illustration Rare1 in 51.8$20.2915$14.10
      Ultra Rare1 in 13.3$3.3128$8.99
      Double Rare (ex)1 in 6.6$1.0020$5.49
      Rare / Rare Holo1 in 1.9$0.1927$3.50
      Hyper Rare (gold)1 in 81.3$5.777$2.56

    EV $149.44 ÷ box price $275.15 = 54% ($4.15 per pack).

    Pull rates: published community pull-rate data (config v1).

    54%
    EV / price
    Buy box
  5. 5
    SV01: Scarlet & Violet Base Set

    36 packs · EV $146 vs box $292 · $4.06/pack

    Gardevoir ex - 245/198Drowzee - 210/198Kirlia - 212/198Ralts - 211/198top pulls
    How we got 50%

    Box price $292.34: TCGplayer market price of the sealed booster box on 2026-09-09.

    1. Bulk slots $35.23: 36 packs × 7 common/uncommon slots × $0.14 average market price of the set's commons and uncommons.
    2. Reverse holo slots $18.22: 36 packs × 2 reverse-holo slots × $0.25 average reverse-holo price.
    3. Rare slot $92.60: for each rarity tier, 36 packs × pulls per pack × the tier's average card price.
      TierPulls / packAvg card priceCards in tierEV / box
      Illustration Rare1 in 13.0$18.8024$52.05
      Special Illustration Rare1 in 32.2$18.8910$21.15
      Ultra Rare1 in 15.4$3.2920$7.70
      Double Rare (ex)1 in 7.1$0.8712$4.41
      Rare / Rare Holo1 in 1.8$0.1921$3.67
      Hyper Rare (gold)1 in 52.1$5.236$3.62

    EV $146.05 ÷ box price $292.34 = 50% ($4.06 per pack).

    Pull rates: published community pull-rate data (config v1).

    50%
    EV / price
    Buy box
  6. 6
    SV03: Obsidian Flames

    36 packs · EV $167 vs box $373 · $4.64/pack

    Charizard ex - 223/197Ninetales -199/197Cleffa - 202/197Charizard ex - 228/197top pulls
    How we got 45%

    Box price $373.28: TCGplayer market price of the sealed booster box on 2026-09-09.

    1. Bulk slots $39.53: 36 packs × 7 common/uncommon slots × $0.16 average market price of the set's commons and uncommons.
    2. Reverse holo slots $20.87: 36 packs × 2 reverse-holo slots × $0.29 average reverse-holo price.
    3. Rare slot $106.52: for each rarity tier, 36 packs × pulls per pack × the tier's average card price.
      TierPulls / packAvg card priceCards in tierEV / box
      Illustration Rare1 in 11.9$16.1312$48.78
      Special Illustration Rare1 in 27.8$23.896$30.96
      Hyper Rare (gold)1 in 50.0$12.623$9.08
      Ultra Rare1 in 16.7$3.4112$7.37
      Double Rare (ex)1 in 7.0$1.3321$6.82
      Rare / Rare Holo1 in 1.9$0.1810$3.52

    EV $166.92 ÷ box price $373.28 = 45% ($4.64 per pack).

    Pull rates: published community pull-rate data (config v1).

    45%
    EV / price
    Buy box
  7. 7
    SV02: Paldea Evolved

    36 packs · EV $209 vs box $481 · $5.82/pack

    Magikarp - 203/193Raichu - 211/193Maushold - 226/193Tyranitar - 222/193top pulls
    How we got 44%

    Box price $481.41: TCGplayer market price of the sealed booster box on 2026-09-09.

    1. Bulk slots $35.11: 36 packs × 7 common/uncommon slots × $0.14 average market price of the set's commons and uncommons.
    2. Reverse holo slots $17.03: 36 packs × 2 reverse-holo slots × $0.24 average reverse-holo price.
    3. Rare slot $157.31: for each rarity tier, 36 packs × pulls per pack × the tier's average card price.
      TierPulls / packAvg card priceCards in tierEV / box
      Illustration Rare1 in 13.1$37.7336$104.03
      Special Illustration Rare1 in 34.8$25.7815$26.63
      Ultra Rare1 in 13.3$4.2826$11.56
      Double Rare (ex)1 in 7.0$1.1217$5.79
      Hyper Rare (gold)1 in 41.8$6.589$5.66
      Rare / Rare Holo1 in 1.9$0.1925$3.64

    EV $209.46 ÷ box price $481.41 = 44% ($5.82 per pack).

    Pull rates: published community pull-rate data (config v1).

    44%
    EV / price
    Buy box
  8. 8
    SV08: Surging Sparks

    36 packs · EV $122 vs box $305 · $3.38/pack

    Pikachu ex - 238/191Latias ex - 239/191Milotic ex - 237/191Pikachu ex - 247/191top pulls
    How we got 40%

    Box price $305.21: TCGplayer market price of the sealed booster box on 2026-09-09.

    1. Bulk slots $27.45: 36 packs × 7 common/uncommon slots × $0.11 average market price of the set's commons and uncommons.
    2. Reverse holo slots $16.50: 36 packs × 2 reverse-holo slots × $0.23 average reverse-holo price.
    3. Rare slot $77.58: for each rarity tier, 36 packs × pulls per pack × the tier's average card price.
      TierPulls / packAvg card priceCards in tierEV / box
      Special Illustration Rare1 in 87.0$71.6911$29.68
      Illustration Rare1 in 13.0$9.2223$25.57
      Double Rare (ex)1 in 6.0$1.3318$8.02
      Ultra Rare1 in 14.9$2.9329$7.07
      Hyper Rare (gold)1 in 188.7$20.976$4.00
      Rare / Rare Holo1 in 1.9$0.1716$3.24

    EV $121.53 ÷ box price $305.21 = 40% ($3.38 per pack).

    Pull rates: published community pull-rate data (config v1).

    40%
    EV / price
    Buy box
EV alerts

Know when a box crosses 100% EV

The Sunday report tracks every box on this page. When EV overtakes box price, you'll read it there first. Free.

Methodology: how we calculate EV

Expected value (EV) is the average market value of the cards you would pull from one booster box, priced at today's TCGplayer singles prices. Every box on this page shows a “How we got this” link with its own numbers; this is the recipe behind all of them.

The formula

EV per box = Bulk EV + Reverse Holo EV + Rare Slot EV

  1. Bulk EV = packs per box × common/uncommon slots per pack × the average market price of the set's commons and uncommons.
  2. Reverse Holo EV = packs per box × reverse-holo slots per pack × the average market price of the set's reverse holos.
  3. Rare Slot EV = packs per box × Σ over rarity tiers (pulls per pack for that tier × the average market price of the cards in that tier). Tiers are Rare/Rare Holo, Double Rare, Illustration Rare, Ultra Rare, Special Illustration Rare and Hyper Rare.

EV ratio = EV per box ÷ the box's own TCGplayer market price. Above 100% the contents are worth more than the box; most boxes sit well below it.

Inputs

  • Card prices: TCGplayer market price for every card in the set from our nightly snapshot (2026-09-09). Raw, near-mint, English printings only.
  • Box price: the TCGplayer market price of the set's 36-pack booster box product on the same date. If the box has no price that day the set is skipped rather than estimated.
  • Pull rates: published community pull-rate studies per set (linked on each box), expressed as pulls per pack for each rarity tier, plus fixed slot counts for commons/uncommons and reverse holos.
  • Exclusions: code cards, sealed products, blisters, bundles and other non-pack items are removed from the card pool before averaging so a $1,900 case never counts as a “pull”.

What EV does not tell you

  • It is a long-run average. One box can beat it, and more often falls short; the spread comes from the rare slot, where a handful of chase cards carry most of the value.
  • It uses market prices, not what you would net. Selling fees, shipping, grading and the time it takes to move bulk all come out of the realized number.
  • Prices move nightly, so the ratio you see today is today's. We recompute every box every night and stamp the date at the top of the page.

Buy links go to TCGplayer and may earn us a commission at no cost to you. That never changes the numbers on this page.